NVDA

Momentum read on NVDA, base close 230.86 on 2026-10-01 (f1, f2). Price rose +1.09% on the day with a +0.70% opening gap that held and closed near the session high; the 5-day change is +2.80% (f1). The visible series shows a persistent higher-low sequence off the 09-14 low of 210.96: subsequent lows held at ~218.29 (09-17 close area), 224.58 (09-24), and 227.21 (09-29), with closes 222.27 → 227.38 → 228.87 → 228.86 → 227.21 → 230.86 (t1). Price is grinding back toward the 09-28 high of 233.21 and the 09-04 high of 234.50, so the advance is a recovery within, not beyond, the recent range — mean reversion is not compelling and I see no evidence of exhaustion. Three-day direction is modestly positive. The main caveat is confirmation: volume_ratio_20d is 0.87, i.e. below average, so the rally lacks strong participation, and 230-234 is a congestion zone where supply could appear. Invalidation: a close back below ~224.5 would break the higher-low structure, and a rejected/failed push through 233-234.5 would flatten the edge; either would argue for neutral rather than continuation. Given below-average volume I keep the target modest rather than aggressive. Thesis is directional momentum, small size, horizon 3.