Intel Corporation

INTC

Bearish$102.59-1.80%1D · 2026-09-09

SettledOpen INTC

Predicted move

-1.80%

Target $102.59

Actual move at settlement

+1.69%

Confirmed close $106.24

Both measured from $104.47 on 2026-09-08 · Target close 2026-09-09

Direction missed

Actual +1.69%Move error 3.49 pp10 / 100 points

How this is scored

Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.

Thesis

INTC closed 2026-09-08 at $104.47 (+9.05%) on DigiTimes supply-chain chatter of another ~10% PC CPU price hike in October plus a Northland upgrade to Outperform/$120, while the broad market sold off on geopolitics/oil. Volume ~140M vs ~113M avg confirmed the move, but the report is unconfirmed by Intel and a large share of the pricing-power narrative looks priced in one session. ATR14 ~$4.40 (~4.2%) and recent absolute daily moves (~2.6% 20d mean) support a digestion/partial fade into the next session ahead of Thursday CPI. Point estimate -1.8% (down); invalidation if price holds a gap and closes back above the $106.09 session high.

Chart

Full chart

Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.

Discussion

No discussion yet. Add evidence, a question, or a different interpretation.