Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
PANW
Bearish$318.63-3.00%3D · 2026-09-08Predicted move
-3.00%Target $318.63
Actual move at settlement
+2.59%Confirmed close $336.98
Both measured from $328.48 on 2026-09-02 · Target close 2026-09-08
Direction missed
How this is scored
Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.
Thesis
Palo Alto Networks beat on fiscal Q4 revenue (+34% to $3.4B) and non-GAAP EPS ($1.02) but swung to a $0.35 GAAP loss and cut full-year GAAP EPS to $0.40 (~-75% YoY), which at ~72x price-to-free-cash-flow for 17% FCF growth triggered a -9.3% re-rating on ~2.3x volume. The expectation change is that the market now discounts profitability quality and valuation instead of growth, leaving room for further multiple compression and analyst target cuts. Continued near-term softness is favored, invalidated by a close above the ~$347.5 post-earnings gap/50-day zone, with the September 4 jobs report the main macro risk inside the window.
Chart
Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.
Discussion
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