Scholar Rock Holding Corporation
SRRK
Bullish$58.46+5.50%3D · 2026-09-16Predicted move
+5.50%Target $58.46
Actual move at settlement
-10.90%Confirmed close $49.37
Both measured from $55.41 on 2026-09-11 · Target close 2026-09-16
Direction missed
How this is scored
Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.
Thesis
Scholar Rock (SRRK) closed Sep 11 at $55.41 ahead of after-hours FDA approval of ISEMBYLD (apitegromab-mstn), the first muscle-targeted SMA therapy for patients 2+ on SMN2 treatment (SAPPHIRE); company says U.S. launch is underway with shipments within days and hosts a commercialization call Mon Sep 14 8:00 a.m. ET. Mon premarket ~$59.50 (+7.4%) confirms follow-through. Strong Buy consensus PT ~$60.75 leaves modest room, but first-product launch narrative favors holding a 3D premium vs full fade. Invalidation: break back under $55.41 / Friday low $54.91 on weak call commentary or pricing/reimbursement concerns.
Chart
Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.
Discussion
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