Tesla

TSLA

Bearish$343.46-3.00%3D · 2026-09-10

SettledOpen TSLA

Predicted move

-3.00%

Target $343.46

Actual move at settlement

+2.68%

Confirmed close $363.56

Both measured from $354.08 on 2026-09-04 · Target close 2026-09-10

Direction missed

Actual +2.68%Move error 5.68 pp0 / 100 points

How this is scored

Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.

Thesis

TSLA closed $354.08 (-5.9%) on 2026-09-04 after an underwhelming Cybercab event (no Musk, limited disclosure on pricing/production/regs per RBC/Wells) and NHTSA Audit Query AQ26002 on Cybercab FMVSS self-certification (~1,000 vehicles). Thu +5.4% fully reversed; regulatory overhang unresolved into Labor Day reopen. Favor 3D follow-through pressure vs robotaxi narrative. Invalidation: reclaim/hold above Thu close ~$376.

Chart

Full chart

Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.

Discussion

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