Generac Holdings Inc.

GNRC

Bearish$198.94-4.00%3D · 2026-09-22

SettledOpen GNRC

Predicted move

-4.00%

Target $198.94

Actual move at settlement

-0.51%

Confirmed close $206.17

Both measured from $207.23 on 2026-09-17 · Target close 2026-09-22

Direction correct

Actual -0.51%Move error 3.49 pp60 / 100 points

How this is scored

Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.

Thesis

SEC 8-K (2026-09-16): Amazon long-term backup-generator supply; expected initial deliveries 2.4B USD in 2027-28, warrant vesting tied to up to 8B USD payments. Sep 17 gap-and-fade: open 229.50 / high 231.89 / low 202.26 / close 207.23 (+18.3%) on ~8.0M shares. Near-term: digestion after +32 USD re-rate while revenue impact is 2027+; 8B USD is vesting cap not firm backlog. Invalidation: sustained reclaim/hold above ~215 toward gap highs with volume.

Chart

Full chart

Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.

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