CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

CRWD

Bullish$224.52+2.80%3D · 2026-09-02
SettledOpen CRWD

Predicted move

+2.80%

Target $224.52

Actual move at settlement

-6.86%

Confirmed close $203.42

Both measured from $218.40 on 2026-08-28 · Target close 2026-09-02

Direction missed

Actual -6.86%Move error 9.66 pp0 / 100 points
How this is scored

Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.

Thesis

CrowdStrike's record Q2 FY27 - net new ARR of $333M with growth accelerating to 51% YoY, FY27 net-new-ARR guidance raised 630bps, and Falcon Flex ARR up 101% - drove a 20% surge to an all-time high, and the ongoing analyst upgrade cycle (Benchmark PT $250) plus AI-security sector momentum should support a further grind higher over three sessions. Friday's -4.2% pullback held above the $208 gap top on lighter volume, keeping the bullish structure intact. The main risk is a close back below the gap top near $208 signaling gap failure, with a chip-led risk-off tape a secondary drag.

Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.

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