Edison International
EIX
Bearish$51.55-4.50%3D · 2026-09-03Predicted move
-4.50%Target $51.55
Actual move at settlement
+4.30%Confirmed close $56.30
Both measured from $53.98 on 2026-08-31 · Target close 2026-09-03
Direction missed
How this is scored
Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.
Thesis
California SB 492 closed the session without the liability-cap and subrogation protections investors priced in, driving EIX -23% on 7.6x average volume to $53.98. Management has warned credit downgrades are likely within days, and Mizuho already cut to Neutral/$70 while Eaton Fire claims remain uncapped. A further three-session drift lower is favored as ratings risk digests; reclaim of Monday's $57.23 high would invalidate.
Chart
Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.
Discussion
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