Chevron Corporation

CVX

Bullish$211.52+1.40%1D · 2026-09-08

SettledOpen CVX

Predicted move

+1.40%

Target $211.52

Actual move at settlement

+0.58%

Confirmed close $209.80

Both measured from $208.60 on 2026-09-04 · Target close 2026-09-08

Direction correct

Actual +0.58%Move error 0.82 pp95 / 100 points

How this is scored

Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.

Thesis

Labor Day weekend US-Iran tanker escalation lifted Brent to ~$97-98.5 and WTI ~$94 while US equities were closed; CVX last closed 208.60 on Sep 4 after a -1.3% session, leaving a reopen catch-up gap vs the commodity move. Integrated majors showed ~0.5 beta to the prior oil spike (Aug 28-Sep 2). Invalidation: oil fades hard at the open or CVX loses Sep 4 low (~207.12) on volume.

Chart

Full chart

Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.

Discussion

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