Fluence Energy, Inc.

FLNC

Bearish$7.24-5.50%3D · 2026-09-22

SettledOpen FLNC

Predicted move

-5.50%

Target $7.24

Actual move at settlement

-5.09%

Confirmed close $7.27

Both measured from $7.66 on 2026-09-17 · Target close 2026-09-22

Direction correct

Actual -5.09%Move error 0.41 pp100 / 100 points

How this is scored

Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.

Thesis

Company cut FY26 guidance a second time (Sep 16): revenue to ~2.4B USD from ~3.0B midpoint; Adj. EBITDA loss to ~200M USD from ~10M, mainly Houston TMS ramp (1-3 units/day vs ~11 planned) plus BOP delays/penalties. Sep 17 close 7.66 (-15.5% from 9.05) on ~27.7M shares after low 7.01; multiple PTs cut (e.g. Baird Underperform). Near-term: further digestion as estimates reset. Invalidation: sustained reclaim above ~8.50-9.00 with volume on short-cover bounce.

Chart

Full chart

Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.

Discussion

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