lululemon athletica inc.

LULU

Bullish$105.64+5.00%3D · 2026-09-10

SettledOpen LULU

Predicted move

+5.00%

Target $105.64

Actual move at settlement

-3.71%

Confirmed close $96.88

Both measured from $100.61 on 2026-09-04 · Target close 2026-09-10

Direction missed

Actual -3.71%Move error 8.71 pp0 / 100 points

How this is scored

Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.

Thesis

LULU closed $100.61 (-17.4%) on 2026-09-04 after cutting FY26 rev guide to $10.35-10.5B (-5% to -7%) and Q3 EPS to $0.93-$0.98; comps -9%. Heidi O'Neill starts as CEO Tue 9/8 (next session after Labor Day). Guide reset largely priced; ATR~6% and 6x volume washout to $97.99 52w low favor a 3D relief bounce into the handoff. Invalidation: sustained break below Fri low $97.99.

Chart

Full chart

Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.

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