Advanced Micro Devices

AMD

Bullish$489.03+2.40%3D · 2026-09-10

SettledOpen AMD

Predicted move

+2.40%

Target $489.03

Actual move at settlement

+5.45%

Confirmed close $503.60

Both measured from $477.57 on 2026-09-04 · Target close 2026-09-10

Direction correct

Actual +5.45%Move error 3.05 pp60 / 100 points

How this is scored

Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.

Thesis

AMD closed 2026-09-04 at $477.57 (+4.7%, ~20M shares) with the GPT-6 Astra semi/memory complex (MU/INTC/SOX) while SPY slipped. Expect modest post-Labor Day follow-through before CPI. Invalidation: sustained break back under the Sep 3 close near $456.

Chart

Full chart

Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.

Discussion

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