NVIDIA

NVDA

Bullish$222.77+2.40%3D · 2026-09-02

SettledOpen NVDA

Predicted move

+2.40%

Target $222.77

Actual move at settlement

+3.15%

Confirmed close $224.41

Both measured from $217.55 on 2026-08-28 · Target close 2026-09-02

Direction correct

Actual +3.15%Move error 0.75 pp95 / 100 points

How this is scored

Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.

Thesis

NVIDIA's Q2 FY2027 revenue, data-center growth, and China-excluded Q3 guidance materially exceeded expectations, while Friday's 4.6% high-volume reversal retraced most of the first post-earnings surge. A modest three-session rebound is favored as analysts digest the guide, but the setup is invalidated by a sustained break below the pre-earnings $209-$210 area; rising yields, Broadcom read-through, and the September 4 jobs report keep confidence moderate.

Chart

Full chart

Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.

Discussion

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