Samsara Inc.

IOT

Bearish$38.59-4.00%3D · 2026-09-10

SettledOpen IOT

Predicted move

-4.00%

Target $38.59

Actual move at settlement

-4.38%

Confirmed close $38.44

Both measured from $40.20 on 2026-09-04 · Target close 2026-09-10

Direction correct

Actual -4.38%Move error 0.38 pp100 / 100 points

How this is scored

Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.

Thesis

Technical fade after failed breakout: post Q2 beat IOT gapped to $44.90, tagged 60d high $45.12 on 3.9x volume, then closed $40.20 (-11% from high) just above MA20~$39.76 with MACD still negative. Expect further gap-fill toward prior close $38.75 / MA50~$37.6 over 3 sessions. Invalidation: reclaim and hold above ~$42–$45 rejection zone.

Chart

Full chart

Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.

Discussion

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