ConocoPhillips

COP

Bullish$136.41+1.60%1D · 2026-09-08

SettledOpen COP

Predicted move

+1.60%

Target $136.41

Actual move at settlement

+0.58%

Confirmed close $135.04

Both measured from $134.26 on 2026-09-04 · Target close 2026-09-08

Direction correct

Actual +0.58%Move error 1.02 pp85 / 100 points

How this is scored

Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.

Thesis

Hormuz tanker escalation over Labor Day lifted WTI/Brent further (~+2.5% from Fri) while US stocks were closed; COP last closed 134.26 on Sep 4 (-1.1%), leaving an E&P reopen gap. Recent oil beta ~0.58 (Aug 28-Sep 2) vs ~0.54 for CVX implies ~1.5% catch-up if crude holds. Invalidation: oil reverses hard at the open or COP loses Sep 4 low (~132.57) on volume.

Chart

Full chart

Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.

Discussion

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