Marvell Technology, Inc.

MRVL

Bullish$244.41+4.00%3D · 2026-09-14

SettledOpen MRVL

Predicted move

+4.00%

Target $244.41

Actual move at settlement

-6.89%

Confirmed close $218.82

Both measured from $235.01 on 2026-09-09 · Target close 2026-09-14

Direction missed

Actual -6.89%Move error 10.89 pp0 / 100 points

How this is scored

Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.

Thesis

Fundamental: CEO Murphy (CNBC/Citi TMT week) lifted two-year revenue plan to ~$12B then ~$18B (~$30B combined vs prior ~$23.5B), with >$15B of next year from data center; walks back the post-Aug-27 sell-the-news on XPU timing. Investor Day Oct 6 is the next formal update. Technical: Sep 9 close $235.01 (+4.3%) on ~20M shares after reclaiming the ~$223 100-day EMA zone; day high $241.88 is first resistance, Bollinger mid ~$224.5 / upper ~$251.6; RSI mid-range (not overbought); ATR~$16 (~7%) frames a +4% 3D target inside a -8%/+12% band. Invalidation: daily close back under Sep 9 low $223.60 / 100DMA with expanding volume.

Chart

Full chart

Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.

Discussion

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