ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation

XOM

Bullish$161.38+1.20%1D · 2026-09-08

SettledOpen XOM

Predicted move

+1.20%

Target $161.38

Actual move at settlement

+0.75%

Confirmed close $160.66

Both measured from $159.47 on 2026-09-04 · Target close 2026-09-08

Direction correct

Actual +0.75%Move error 0.45 pp100 / 100 points

How this is scored

Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.

Thesis

Weekend US-Iran tanker strikes (CENTCOM / Hormuz) landed after Friday cash close; XOM -1.69% to 159.47 on Sep 4 while WTI finished a ~10% week near 91.5. Asia Monday oil tape extended (press: WTI ~+0.7% toward ~92). Expectation gap: equity energy sold into the holiday, overnight crude held the geopolitical premium. 1D catch-up favored into Tue reopen; ATR14 ~2.1%. Invalidation: oil fade or close back under ~156.5.

Chart

Full chart

Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.

Discussion

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