Elastic N.V.

ESTC

Bullish$103.11+3.20%3D · 2026-09-02

SettledOpen ESTC

Predicted move

+3.20%

Target $103.11

Actual move at settlement

-10.34%

Confirmed close $89.58

Both measured from $99.91 on 2026-08-28 · Target close 2026-09-02

Direction missed

Actual -10.34%Move error 13.54 pp0 / 100 points

How this is scored

Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.

Thesis

Elastic beat Q1 FY27 and raised FY non-GAAP EPS guidance to $3.29-$3.37, driving a +19.3% high-volume gap to $99.91. A modest three-session follow-through is favored as analysts reprice the cRPO and guidance reset, but RSI is elevated and a sustained break back below the pre-gap $83-$85 zone invalidates; the Sep 4 jobs report adds macro risk.

Chart

Full chart

Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.

Discussion

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