Guidewire Software, Inc.

GWRE

Bullish$171.35+5.50%3D · 2026-09-10

SettledOpen GWRE

Predicted move

+5.50%

Target $171.35

Actual move at settlement

-13.75%

Confirmed close $140.09

Both measured from $162.42 on 2026-09-04 · Target close 2026-09-10

Direction missed

Actual -13.75%Move error 19.25 pp0 / 100 points

How this is scored

Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.

Thesis

GWRE closed $162.42 (-19.9%) on 2026-09-04 after CQ revenue guide $372-378M missed ~$387M LSEG; FY guide $1.71-1.73B was near/above ~$1.70B. ATR~6.7% and ~3.4x volume washout to $157.05 looks like near-term panic vs a structural miss. Favor 3D relief bounce as the CQ miss digests into Labor Day reopen. Invalidation: sustained break below Fri low $157.05 on fresh guidance cuts.

Chart

Full chart

Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.

Discussion

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