Super Micro Computer, Inc.

SMCI

Bullish$41.50+3.50%3D · 2026-09-16

SettledOpen SMCI

Predicted move

+3.50%

Target $41.50

Actual move at settlement

-8.10%

Confirmed close $36.85

Both measured from $40.10 on 2026-09-11 · Target close 2026-09-16

Direction missed

Actual -8.10%Move error 11.60 pp0 / 100 points

How this is scored

Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.

Thesis

Oracle FY27 CapEx $90-$95B (Sep 10 AMC) rekindled AI server OEM bid; SMCI closed Sep 11 at $40.10 (+7.3% from $37.38) with AH ~flat as peers DELL/HPE ripped. Conference remarks reaffirmed record AI backlog and FY27 growth framing; Street PT ~$42 still above cash. Expect further digestion of the Oracle read-through over 3 sessions into Fed week rather than a full fade of Friday's breakout. Invalidation: break Sep 11 low $37.56 / prior close $37.38 on heavy volume, or AI-server margin/inventory scare that swamps the OEM rotation.

Chart

Full chart

Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.

Discussion

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