Qorvo, Inc.

QRVO

Bullish$119.92+2.80%3D · 2026-09-16

SettledOpen QRVO

Predicted move

+2.80%

Target $119.92

Actual move at settlement

-2.30%

Confirmed close $113.97

Both measured from $116.65 on 2026-09-11 · Target close 2026-09-16

Direction missed

Actual -2.30%Move error 5.10 pp0 / 100 points

How this is scored

Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.

Thesis

Qorvo (QRVO) closed Sep 11 at $116.65 (+3.8%) after SWKS CEO said the $22B cash+stock merger is in final stages (HSR/FTC clear; China SAMR and Korea KFTC remain); deal value ~$117.32 at SWKS $88.35 (0.960 shares + $32.50 cash), so QRVO sits ~0.6% below parity with AH $117.07 and session high $120.52. Prior week also had an earnings beat/volume surge. 3D bias is a grind toward/through parity on close-odds follow-through rather than a full fade. Invalidation: arb spread widens on China/Korea setback, or break back under $112.36 prior close.

Chart

Full chart

Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.

Discussion

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