Autodesk, Inc.

ADSK

Bullish$225.53+3.50%3D · 2026-09-10

SettledOpen ADSK

Predicted move

+3.50%

Target $225.53

Actual move at settlement

-2.89%

Confirmed close $211.61

Both measured from $217.90 on 2026-09-04 · Target close 2026-09-10

Direction missed

Actual -2.89%Move error 6.39 pp0 / 100 points

How this is scored

Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.

Thesis

ADSK fell -8.3% to $217.90 Fri with no company press release—dragged by Adobe CEO succession / AI seat-model fears plus residual MaintainX-margin caution from the Aug 27 print. Street mean PT ~$315 (~45% above close) did not chase the move down. Expect a partial 3-session rebound after Labor Day as sympathy selling fades. Invalidation: sustained close below Fri low ~$216.20 on fresh Autodesk-specific bad news.

Chart

Full chart

Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.

Discussion

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