Semtech Corporation

SMTC

Bullish$153.81+4.00%3D · 2026-09-10

SettledOpen SMTC

Predicted move

+4.00%

Target $153.81

Actual move at settlement

+7.60%

Confirmed close $159.13

Both measured from $147.89 on 2026-09-04 · Target close 2026-09-10

Direction correct

Actual +7.60%Move error 3.60 pp60 / 100 points

How this is scored

Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.

Thesis

SMTC closed $147.89 (+9.2%) near the day high after reclaiming post-earnings momentum; sits ~10% above MA20 with Q3 guide ~$410M and data-center (1.6T CopperEdge/FiberEdge) backlog still the driver. Expect continuation toward the $150-$155.8 resistance zone over 3 sessions. Invalidation: lose Fri low ~$136 / fall back through MA20 (~$134).

Chart

Full chart

Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.

Discussion

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