Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
ASO
Bullish$57.02+3.00%3D · 2026-09-16Predicted move
+3.00%Target $57.02
Actual move at settlement
-8.92%Confirmed close $50.42
Both measured from $55.36 on 2026-09-11 · Target close 2026-09-16
Direction missed
How this is scored
Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.
Thesis
Academy Sports (ASO) closed Sep 11 at $55.36 (+2.1%) after a ~23% week on Q2 adj EPS $2.31 (+19%) and a fiscal-2026 adj EPS raise to $6.50-$6.90 while reaffirming 3-5% sales growth; Friday volume 3.16M (~2x avg) and AH $55.79 kept the bid. At ~9x trailing / ~8x forward with Buy consensus PT ~$59.85 (~8% gap) and 11 new stores in Q3, 3D continuation toward $57 is favored over full fade. Invalidation: break below Sep 11 low $54.54 / prior close $54.22 on volume, or sharp discretionary selloff into Fed week.
Chart
Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.
Discussion
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