Fair Isaac Corporation

FICO

Bullish$978.87+5.00%3D · 2026-09-10

SettledOpen FICO

Predicted move

+5.00%

Target $978.87

Actual move at settlement

+3.05%

Confirmed close $960.67

Both measured from $932.26 on 2026-09-04 · Target close 2026-09-10

Direction correct

Actual +3.05%Move error 1.95 pp85 / 100 points

How this is scored

Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.

Thesis

FICO closed $932.26 (-16.7%) on 2026-09-04 after FHFA Director Pulte directed Fannie/Freddie to approve VantageScore for all lenders and called out FICO's 'monopoly.' Selloff was extreme (ATR~6%, ~4.6x volume; low $885). Near-term cash-flow hit may be overstated vs implementation friction (GSE readiness, ongoing tri-merge), favoring a 3D relief bounce after panic. Invalidation: sustained break below Fri low $885 on fresh FHFA headlines.

Chart

Full chart

Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.

Discussion

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