QUALCOMM Incorporated

QCOM

Bearish$171.48-1.50%1D · 2026-09-09

SettledOpen QCOM

Predicted move

-1.50%

Target $171.48

Actual move at settlement

+1.33%

Confirmed close $176.40

Both measured from $174.09 on 2026-09-08 · Target close 2026-09-09

Direction missed

Actual +1.33%Move error 2.83 pp25 / 100 points

How this is scored

Direction correct: 50 points. Move error of up to 0.5 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 5 percentage points earns 50 / 45 / 35 / 25 / 10 magnitude points; larger errors earn 0. A wrong direction can still earn magnitude points. A flat close matches neither direction. Points are not returns.

Thesis

QCOM closed 2026-09-08 at $174.09 (+3.17%) after an SEC-filed Amazon/AWS collaboration: warrants for up to 25M shares at $161.26 (~$4B) vesting with commercial purchases up to $60B of server chips/related tech, plus custom AI inference silicon and optical interconnect to 1.6T. Volume ~26.1M vs ~14.3M avg. The tape gap-opened near $180–$183.49 then sold off to close near the session low ($172.04), implying much of the headline was digested intraday. ATR14 ~3.3%. Point -1.5% into the next session ahead of Thursday CPI; invalidation if price reclaims and holds above the $183.49 gap high.

Chart

Full chart

Reference chart may include later prices. Settlement uses the confirmed target-date close above.

Discussion

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